A high magnitude earthquake is due anytime in Kathmandu valley, experts predict. And if this happens, more than 40,000 people will be killed while an estimated 900,000 will be left homeless as 60 percent of the buildings will be demolished, according to geologists.

Situated in a seismically active region, Kathmandu is highly prone to earthquakes. The World Disasters Report 2010 listed the capital city of the country as one of the seven cities of South Asia vulnerable to disasters.

On Oct. 17, a tremor with a magnitude of 5 on the Richter scale was recorded in and around the valley with its epicenter in the region bordering Tibet and northern side of Nepal. Other recent tremors felt inside Kathmandu Valley were on May 13 and Oct.1 this year, each measuring 4 on the Richter scale. Natural disasters cannot be prevented from happening but the irony is that despite common knowledge of the country situated in a seismically fragile lap, it has hardly any disaster preparedness measure that can help mitigate the severity and saves lives and property, says Amrit Man Tuladhar, National Programme Manager of Earthquake Risk Reduction and Recovery Preparedness Programme for Nepal under the Ministry of Physical Planning and Works. The boom in construction of new buildings that have failed to include earthquake resistant components to meet the needs of the rapid increase in population in the city is a major challenge for the city if an earthquake occurs, he said. “The construction of unstructured (non-technical to deal with earthquake) high buildings

Meanwhile, more than 60 percent of the old buildings and infrastructures inside the valley are vulnerable to tremor causing loss of billions of rupees and lives of hundreds of people, Tuladhar said. Unfortunately, the rescue operation inside the valley during the time of event is very poor as most of the infrastructures like roads, bridges are vulnerable to collapse and there is very limited space available for evacuation. “We will lack the facilities of mobile clinics and access to first-aid kit which are very essential at the time when earthquake happens. The preparation of preparedness during the time of disaster is very poor,” Tuladhar said. Amod Mani Dixit, executive director of National Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal said, there are no facilities to carry rescue operation inside the capital at the time of disaster. According to him, majority of the hospitals, roads, bridges and houses are vulnerable to earthquake. “Except few private and public houses, hospitals and institutions among others which are built following the components of earthquake resistant, majority of the buildings will be destroyed hampering the rescue operation,” he said.

According Nepal Red Cross Society’s 2008 Earthquake Contingency Plan, the valley would suffer serious disruption in the event of an earthquake.

“Roads, bridges, water storage facilities, communications networks would be seriously damaged by warping or subsidence, and access routes blocked by landslides and the collapse of road-beds,” the plan says.

Meanwhile, though the government formulated the Building Code 1998 to specify measures for constructing earthquake-resistant buildings, however the codes are rarely practiced by the people.

Tuladhar said, except newly constructed government owned buildings and some private houses, the earthquake components have been failed to be incorporated while building maximum number of houses particularly in urban areas of the country.

Out of total five municipalities in around the Kathmandu valley only two namely Kathmandu and Lalitpur are abiding by the building codes, he added. In Nepal, over 16 earthquakes have occurred since 1223 and the last one was recorded in 1988.  The most disastrous occurred in 1833 (magnitude 7.7 on Richter scale) and 1934 (magnitude 8.3 on Richter scale). Their epicentres respectively were in Kathmandu Valley and Sankhuwasabha Chainpur Nepal.

source: Shahi, P. (2010),"Heaven help the Valley in the event of a disaster", The Kathmandu Post, 25 october 2010